Tomek, dla Ciebie prognozy analityków Wall Street z grudnia 2007 roku. Tak Wall Street forecastuje wszystko ... Oby opchnąć ulicy wszystko do końca...
THE STOCK MARKET HAS JUST EXPERIENCED its most volatile year since the current bull market began. Corporate profits shrank in the third quarter for the first time since early 2002. Record oil prices, housing deflation, rising loan defaults and tighter credit conditions threaten to tip the U.S. economy into recession. And a few weeks ago, it looked as if 2007's gains might disappear before the first strains of Auld Lang Syne.
Against this troubling backdrop, it's no wonder investors are worried that the bull market might end in 2008. But Wall Street's top equity strategists are quick to dismiss such fears.
Indeed, the dozen seers we've surveyed all have penciled in higher stock prices in 2008, although their estimated gains vary widely, from 3% to 18%. On average, the group sees the Standard & Poor's 500 at 1,640 by the end of next year, or about 10% higher than the recent 1486 with global growth and a benevolent Federal Reserve serving as twin crutches for the aging bull.
THE STREET'S BULLISH consensus is particularly impressive considering that all 12 strategists also take a dim view of the U.S. economy's prospects and expect the Fed to keep cutting interest rates to spur spending. Since September, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues have lowered the benchmark federal-funds rate three times, to 4.25% from 5.25%, including Tuesday's quarter-point reduction. Still, none of the leading strategists is forecasting a recession, although one Wall Street economist -- Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley -- last week predicted a "mild recession," with no growth for a year.
"We expect the U.S. economy to show the strains of the deflating housing market and credit-market disruptions in early 2008," says Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen. But "recession likely will be avoided, due to strength in exports and capital spending by corporations and government."
A Bullish Call
Credit Suisse equity strategist Jonathan Morton agrees. "Conditions for a hard economic landing -- like slack in the labor market and weak balance sheets -- are still largely absent," he says.
Zauważcie, że :
1/ Wszyscy się spodziewali, że gospodarka zwalnia (W 3Q nagle zmiejszyly sie zyski tak same z siebie...)
2/ Oczekiwano, że w takim razie FED zetnie stopy (a je podwyższał pomimo tego)
3/ Wszyscy bullish widząc wysokie ceny ropy i zwalniającą gospodarkę
4/ Widzieli nawet housing bubble.
5/ Banki prognozowały, że corporate earnings odbiją i, że to temporary
Grudzień 2007 to już był dramat :
